{"id":726,"date":"2017-03-14T17:45:12","date_gmt":"2017-03-14T17:45:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kalam.chathamhouse.org\/articles\/western-policy-towards-syria-applying-lessons-learned\/"},"modified":"2023-06-25T17:46:49","modified_gmt":"2023-06-25T17:46:49","slug":"western-policy-towards-syria-applying-lessons-learned","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kalam.chathamhouse.org\/ar\/western-policy-towards-syria-applying-lessons-learned\/","title":{"rendered":"Western Policy Towards Syria: Applying Lessons Learned"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Six years into Syria\u2019s conflict, \u2018victory\u2019 for any particular actor is likely to prove a relative term.\u00a0The regime of President Bashar al-Assad holds the military advantage, but lacks the capacity\u00a0and resources to recapture and govern the whole of Syria. A post-settlement Syrian state would\u00a0likely see new elites and warlords wielding power and influence across the country. At the same\u00a0time, extremist groups are likely to persist and evolve. This is no recipe for stability.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>There are no straightforward answers for Western policymakers. Short-term approaches that\u00a0do not appreciate the nuances of the conflict bring more risks than opportunities. Policymakers\u00a0must consider the long-term obstacles to stable and effective governance in Syria that are a\u00a0direct result of the rise of new actors on the ground.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>In addressing these challenges, Western policymakers must be realistic. They must identify\u00a0strategic objectives in accordance with their level of commitment to achieving them. Since 2011,\u00a0Western policy towards Syria has been undermined by a wide gap between rhetoric and action,\u00a0poor communication with allies, and a lack of vision.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>The absence of a coherent strategic vision \u2013 or the political will to see it through \u2013 on the part\u00a0of Western governments has contributed to the increasing strength and influence of extremist\u00a0groups. These groups cannot be countered by military means alone, however. Without a political\u00a0agreement to end the conflict, tactical measures for fighting extremism in Syria will fail, as they\u00a0have elsewhere.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Policymakers must align \u2018top-down\u2019 and \u2018bottom-up\u2019 measures, as no national solution in Syria\u00a0can be implemented effectively without the buy-in of local communities. To date, local-level\u00a0humanitarian and governance initiatives have largely overlooked political issues, while national-level\u00a0peace initiatives have focused on political issues but without enough attention to local\u00a0dynamics and actors. A successful Western strategy must balance national-level policies with\u00a0local-level priorities and concerns in order to cultivate the support of local constituencies.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Western powers \u2013 specifically the US, the EU, the UK and France \u2013 must make the most of\u00a0their limited leverage to extract concessions from the Assad regime and its international\u00a0backers. The greatest leverage that the West possesses is economic: through sanctions, trade\u00a0and reconstruction. This may prove significant in determining Syria\u2019s post-settlement future.\u00a0The regime\u2019s external sponsors, Russia and Iran, have neither the capital to fund large-scale\u00a0reconstruction efforts nor the interest in doing so.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary Six years into Syria\u2019s conflict, \u2018victory\u2019 for any particular actor is likely to prove a relative term.\u00a0The regime of President Bashar al-Assad holds the military advantage, but lacks the capacity\u00a0and resources to recapture and govern the whole of Syria. A post-settlement Syrian state would\u00a0likely see new elites and warlords wielding power and influence across [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":724,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[75],"tags":[367,44],"ppma_author":[321,231],"class_list":["post-726","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-75","tag-geopolitics-and-security","tag-syria"],"acf":[],"authors":[{"term_id":321,"user_id":34,"is_guest":0,"slug":"neil-quilliam","display_name":"\u0646\u064a\u0644 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